Climate Change Meeting

SERDP Climate Change Program Review and NOAA Partnership Meeting

David Skaggs Research CenterBoulder, CO

Complete Attendee List Meeting Charge Agenda

TUESDAY, JULY 7, 2015
0830	Welcome and Introductions	Dr. Anne AndrewsSERDP/ESTCP	Dr. Alexander ‘Sandy’ MacDonaldNOAA ESRLPresentation
0830	Welcome and Introductions	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRL
0900	SERDP Climate Change Research: Past Accomplishments and New Challenges Overview of meeting objectives Overview of SERDP-funded climate change-related research Objectives for the regional sessions Meeting user needs with actionable science Translating science into action Emerging research sessions Concluding thoughts	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCPPresentation
0945	Break
1005	NOAA Research Interests Mission Science and research capabilities Opportunities to collaborate	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRLPresentation
1050	SERDP-Supported Climate Modeling Products Data sets produced Implications for possible use by others User Guide—purpose and status	Dr. Rao KotamarthiArgonne National LaboratoryPresentation	Dr. Katharine HayhoeTexas Tech University
1120	Meeting Outcomes Report/Investment Strategy	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP
1130	Networking Lunch
Regional Perspective: Pacific Islands
1300	Introduction: Climate Change in the Pacific Islands	Dr. Mike AlexanderNOAA ESRLPresentation
1310	Estimating Typhoon Risk to Pacific Islands in Current and Future Climate	Dr. Kerry EmanuelMITPresentation
1325	Advancing Best Practices for the Formulation of Localized Sea-Level Rise/Coastal Inundation “Extremes" Scenarios for Military Installations in the Pacific Islands	Dr. Billy SweetNOAA NOSPresentation
1340	Impacts of Changing Climate on Pacific Island-Based Defense Installations	Dr. Jeff DonnellyWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionPresentation
1355	The Impact of Sea-Level Rise and Climate Change on Atolls and Low-Lying, Reef-Lined Coasts	Dr. Curt StorlazziUSGSPresentation
1410	Water Resources on Guam: Potential Impacts and Adaptive Response to Climate Change for Department for Defense Installations	Dr. Steve GingerichUSGSPresentation
1425	Discussion Process/VIA model requirements for climate information; needed model sensitivity analyses and validations Climate information for the region(s): general outlooks/availability of data and downscaled products that meet process and VIA model needs Major challenges/research needs: short-term and long-term	Dr. Joseph BarsugliNOAA ESRL
1455	Break
Regional Perspective: Southeast/Southwest
1515	Introduction	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRLPresentation
1525	Future Climate Outlooks for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast	Dr. Rachel McCraryNCARPresentation
1540	Testing Process Models with Climate Model Output in the Southeast	Dr. Ryan BoylesNorth Carolina State UniversityPresentation
1555	Climate Change in the Southwest: What We Know and Don’t Know	Dr. Chris CastroUniversity of ArizonaPresentation
1610	Climate Change and Fire in the Southwest	Dr. Matthew BrooksUSGSPresentation
1625	Climate Change and Aquatic-Riparian Ecosystems in the Southwestern U.S.	Dr. David LytleOregon State UniversityPresentation
1640	A Situational Awareness of Decadal Variations in Regional Precipitation	Dr. Martin HoerlingNOAA ESRLPresentation
1655	Discussion Process/VIA model requirements for climate information; needed model sensitivity analyses and validations Climate information for the region(s): general outlooks/availability of data and downscaled products that meet process and VIA model needs Major challenges/research needs: short-term and long-term	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRL
1725	Day 1 Recap/Day 2 Agenda	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRL
1730	Adjourn

WEDNESDAY, JULY 8, 2015
Regional Perspective: Alaska
0830	Introduction	Mr. Kevin KnuutiERDC-CRREL
0840	Permafrost Dynamics and Effects on Surface and Sub-Surface Hydrology: An Overview	Dr. Michelle WalvoordUSGSPresentation
0855	Fire, Permafrost, and Vegetation Change in a Warmer World	Dr. Ted SchuurNorthern Arizona UniversityPresentation
0910	Permafrost Dynamics and Built Infrastructure	Mr. Kevin BjellaERDC-CRRELPresentation
0925	Subsurface Monitoring for the Impacts of Permafrost Change on Infrastructure	Dr. Jonathan Ajo-FranklinLawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryPresentation
0940	Effect of Arctic Amplification on Design Snow Loads in Alaska	Ms. Kathy JonesERDC-CRRELPresentation
0955	Break
Regional Perspective: Alaska (Continued)
1015	Arctic Climate Modeling: State of the Science and Research Challenges	Dr. Michael WintonNOAA GFDLPresentation
1030	User Perspective—What Do We Need to Know?	Dr. Tom DouglasERDC-CRRELPresentation
1045	Discussion Process/VIA model requirements for climate information; needed model sensitivity analyses and validations Climate information for the region(s): general outlooks/availability of data and downscaled products that meet process and VIA model needs Major challenges/research needs: short-term and long-term	Mr. Kevin KnuutiERDC-CRREL
1115	Regional Wrap Up	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRL
1130	Networking Lunch
Climate Information at Moderate Time Scales: 2 to 20 years
1300	Introduction/Nature of the Challenge	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP
1310	Naval Needs for Decadal Environmental Forecasting and Related Research	Dr. Scott HarperONRPresentation
1330	Weak (and Variable) Change Signals in a Landscape of High Variation: Where’s the Information Content?	Dr. Jeff ArnoldUSACE-CWPresentation
1350	Is the Climate Predictable on Decadal Time Scales?	Dr. Dave EasterlingNOAA NCDCPresentation
1410	Challenge/Potential of Actionable Predictions of Extreme Precipitation	Dr. Ken KunkelNorth Carolina State UniversityPresentation
1430	Factors Influencing Potential Predictability of Extremes from Years to Decades: Extreme Temperatures	Dr. Randy DoleNOAA  ESRLPresentation
1450	Break
Climate Information at Moderate Time Scales: 2 to 20 years (Continued)
1510	DoD Coastal Assessment Regional Scenario Working Group: Progress to Date	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCPPresentation
1530	Sea Level Rise and Recurrent Tidal Flooding	Dr. Billy SweetNOAA NOSPresentation
1550	Discussion Who is working this space? What are the challenges unique to working this time horizon? What are possible areas of research that could prove useful to end-users in the short term?	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP
1650	Day 2 Recap/Day 3 Agenda	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRLPresentation
1700	Adjourn

THURSDAY, JULY 9, 2015
Decision Framing
0830	Decision Framing under Climate Change Moving from deterministic decision-making to decision-making under uncertainty: necessity of, challenges, and opportunities for “Risk-based” decision making and other framings: what are they and how are they different? What can the USGCRP and NCA contribute? What can SERDP contribute?	Dr. Chris WeaverUSGCRPPresentation
0850	Climate Information for Risk Management: Scenarios and Other Approaches	Dr. Richard MossBattellePresentation
0910	Do We Need (Ex Post) Probabilities For Adaptation?	Dr. Casey Brown University of Massachusetts, AmherstPresentation
0930	Downscaling: State of the Science and Research Needs	Dr. Linda MearnsNCARPresentation
0950	Evaluating Statistical Downscaling Performance under Changing Climate  Conditions: A Consumer Reports-like, Perfect Model Framework	Dr. Keith DixonNOAA GFDLPresentation
1010	Break
Decision Framing (Continued)
1030	Climate Change Decision Frameworks: Using Environmental Information and Assessments to Support Climate-Sensitive Decision Making in the Department of Defense	Dr. Judsen BruzgulICF InternationalPresentation
1050	Discussion What have we learned: e.g., (1) how to provide a scientific basis for a new paradigm that incorporates uncertain futures into decision-making and (2) best practices for use of GCM/downscaling data products by process modelers and decision-makers (when to do and for what region, what variables are of interest, and what spatial and temporal scale delineations are needed?). What are the challenges for addressing decision-making under climate change uncertainty that remain? What are possible additional areas of research that could prove useful in meeting these challenges?	Dr. Richard MossBattelle
1140	Meeting Wrap-Up—Capture Highlights and Next Steps Discussed During the Meeting/Meeting Report Overview	Dr. Judsen BruzgulICF International
1150	Closing Remarks	Dr. John HallSERDP/ESTCP	Dr. Robin WebbNOAA ESRL
1200	Networking Lunch/Travel

Climate Change Meeting – 2015