DoD Report on Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management

04/25/2016

DoD announces the release of a new report, “Regional Sea Level Scenarios for Coastal Risk Management: Managing the Uncertainty of Future Sea Level Change and Extreme Water Levels for Department of Defense Coastal Sites Worldwide.” A multi-agency team of researchers developed the report and an accompanying online database to provide regionalized sea level and extreme water level scenarios for three future time horizons (2035, 2065, and 2100) for 1,774 military sites worldwide. These “scenarios” are plausible and scientifically credible future sea level and extreme water level values. The database provides access to site-specific scenario values for each of the three future timeframes, based on five global sea-level rise scenarios that range from 0.2 meters to 2.0 meters rise by 2100, starting from 1992. The site-specific results include regional and local adjustments of global values for the 0.2- through 2.0-meter scenarios and reflect the fact that sea-level change and extreme water levels are not uniform across the globe. The scenarios are not deterministic or probabilistic; they should not be considered predictions or most likely futures. Instead they provide bounding values to assist decision-makers in managing their risks in the context of plausible future sea level and extreme water levels. Decision-makers can use these scenarios for relative vulnerability or impact assessments at the site level or across several installations or Military Services.  The report is available at www.serdp-estcp.org.

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